Winners: Pavlyuchenkova vs. Strycova

Since the last time you heard from me, we won again. Red Bull Leipzig tied Borussia Monchengladbach and we never trailed in the game. However, we did have to sweat out the final 25 minutes or so after a straight red card for Leipzig. But that’s in the past and we’re still winners. For those of you keeping score at home, we’re now 33-2 in the last 35 picks and our money continues to climb.

Today, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova faces Barbora Strycova in the Toray Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo, Japan. We have a match-up of the 16th and 17th women’s players in the world. They’ve faced in each other three times over their careers and Pavlyuchenkova is 3-0 against Strycova, with all three competitions being played on hard surfaces – the same surface as this tournament. There isn’t a lot separating these two players other than their head-to-head matches. Here’s how we’ll bet it.

Pick: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -140 (Bet $30 to win $21.43)

I believe Vegas is setting the odds on this match based on rankings. It obviously isn’t based on head-to-head results on similar surfaces. We’ll roll the dice on this one based on previous history without knowing too much about each player – we’ll go with what the stats say.

Fingers crossed.