Winners: MIA vs. WSH

*Originally posted on the Sports Action Blog

The trust we bestowed on Dallas Keuchel and the Astros fell through again. That’s twice now. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice and you’re off my ‘Kershaw-esque’ list. The White Sox are the worst team in baseball and that effort was pathetic. Everything was set up to keep moving earlier in the night with the Lynx win over Atlanta, supposedly the less likely win to happen based on the moneyline, and then this happens. I’m done with the Keuchel and the Astros. Now that I’ve vented, let’s move to today.

Tonight, the Miami Marlins play at the Washington Nationals. The first-place Nationals look to rebound from last night’s loss to the second-place Marlins. The Nationals send Gio Gonzalez to the hill. Gonzalez is 9-5 on the season with a 2.66 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. More importantly, he’s faced the Marlins three times this season. In those starts he’s 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 21 innings of work. The Marlins are batting just .189 against him. Over his career, he’s been just as good, going 8-3 with a 1.99 ERA in 14 starts. Needless to say, he’s been amazing against the Marlins.

For the Marlins, Adam Conley gets the start. He’s 4-4 on the season with a 5.10 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. However, he’s been much better after the All-Star break, going 2-1 in four starts with a 2.42 ERA. Over the course of the season, his ERA is also six runs better on the road than it is at home. Those two stat lines are not in our favor but he’s not a big strikeout guy and the Nationals can hit. Conley hasn’t faced the Nationals this year, but over his short career he’s allowed 16 runs in 18 innings.

Here are some other trends to consider:

  • Marlins are 1-4 in their last five games against left-handed starters
  • Marlins are 3-9 in their last 12 games against teams with winning records
  • Nationals are 5-1 in their last six games Gonzalez started against Miami
  • Nationals are 5-1 in their last six games that are the third of a series

Pick: Washington Nationals -185 (Bet $85 to win $45.95)

I’m fairly confident in this pick. The fact that it’s not in a parlay helps. My only concern is the trend I saw on from my Pro Version of the Sports Action App – the Marlins are 7-3 in their last 10 against the spread. Nonetheless, I’m rolling with the Nats.

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