Winners: HOU vs. CWS

*Originally posted on the Sports Action Blog

We’re rolling right now. Four straight wins backed by a revised, more conservative approach. This is how betting goes – it ebbs and flows. I once heard the scientific explanation for why streaks are real in betting. When you’re winning, you’re more likely to keep winning because you’ll make more and more conservative bets. On the other hand, when you’re losing, you’re more likely to keep losing because you’ll make riskier bets to try to win back the money you keep losing. We’re in win mode right now and I want to keep winning. No turning back now – only going forward.

Tonight, the Houston Astros play at the Chicago White Sox. The American League’s best team plays the worst. The Astros are coming into this series after taking a series against the Toronto Blue Jays as baseball’s best road team. Starting for the Astros is Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel is 9-1 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. We bet Keuchel last week against Tampa Bay and he lost 3-0, earning his first loss of the season. I saw a tweeted about the rareness of how they lost last week. Sometimes you just don’t have good luck.

Keuchel hasn’t been as dominant after his injury as he was before, but he hasn’t been terrible. He’s allowed three runs in each of his two starts in eight innings of work. Only three current White Sox players have at-bats against him so hopefully that’s in our favor.

For the White Sox, Derek Holland takes the mound. Holland is 5-11 with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.55 ERA. Holland has been terrible since the All-Star break, allowing 16 earned runs in 21 innings over five games. Houston batters are far more familiar with Holland, facing him a total of 85 times. The Astros statistically have the best offense in baseball and hopefully it shows tonight.

Here are some trends that may show the outcome of the match-up:

  • Astros are 31-9 as road favorites
  • White Sox are 5-17 in their last 22 games against left-handed starters
  • White Sox are 0-11 in Holland’s last 11 starts following a team loss

Keuchel and the Astros let us down last week and it was part of the beginning of a rough week. However, I’m going to give them another shot. We’re playing the ‘best team vs. worst team’ card tonight and hoping for the best.

Pick: Houston Astros -270 (Bet $30 to Win $11.11)

Bet today’s ‘winners’ in a parlay at $15 to win $12. Bet this pick and get updates from the Sports Action App, available in the App Store and Google Play Store.