Winners: NYM vs. WSH

Since the last time you heard from me, the winning streak concluded. Our downfall? An own goal. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – never bet on Atlanta. Had there not been an own goal, the streak would be at 11 and we’d still be cruising. At this point I’m going to take it as a bump in the road because we’ve got a system rolling and the picks are working.

Let’s move on.

Today, the New York Mets play at the Washington Nationals. The Nationals have been trying to keep the ship afloat dealing with injuries, while the Mets have had so many injuries, they’re waiting for the season to be over. Starting for the Mets is Robert Gsellmen. Gsellmen is 5-5 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He’s faced Washington once this year and it didn’t go well. He allowed seven earned runs and 11 hits in five innings of work. The Nationals batted .440 against him. Yikes.

For the Nationals, Gio Gonzalez starts. Gonzalez is 12-5 with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He’s faced the Mets twice this season and he’s 2-0. He’s only allowed three earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. Mets players are batting .149 against him. That’s fairly dominant.

Here are some trends that may show how the game will go:

  • Mets are 0-5 in Gsellmen’s last five starts
  • Mets are 0-9 in their last nine games against left-handed starters
  • Nationals are 5-0 in Gonzalez’s last five starts
  • Nationals are 5-1 in Gonzalez’s last six starts against the Mets

Pick: Washington Nationals -225 (Bet $30 to win $13.33)

Assuming we don’t lose the earlier Barcelona bet, this is how we’ll bet this game. If we lose, I’ll adjust the bet. We haven’t bet a baseball game in while so let’s hope for the best. Based on trends, I’ve done well with home teams. This should be a solid pick.