Winners: WSH vs. SD

Since the last time you heard from me, we won both our straight MLB picks and of the course the parlay we had on them. The Cubs jumped out to a sizeable lead, only to blow it later and win the game in the ninth. The Dodgers had a different type of game, trailing for most of it but finishing it in similar fashion to the Cubs. Whatever happens, keep it in the box score. The only thing that matters is wins and losses. In this case, we won.

Let’s keep it going today.

Tonight, the Washington Nationals visit the San Diego Padres. The Nationals look to continue their winning ways while the Padres look to continue their better play of late. Starting for the Nationals is Max Scherzer. Scherzer is 12-5 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. We bet Scherzer in his last start. He didn’t get the decision but the Nationals ended up winning the game with a walk-off grand slam. Yeah, crazy. Scherzer hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start in almost a month. Generally, when that happens you won’t lose most games. Scherzer has faced the Padres once this season, allowing one earned run and three hits in 8 2/3 innings. He struck out 13. That’s good stuff.

For the Padres, Luis Pedromo starts. Pedromo is 6-7 with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. I would say he’s been average at best. However, when he faced the Nationals earlier this season, he fared well. Even though he lost the game, he only allowed three runs in six innings of work. While I’ve been looking at these baseball games to examine whether I should bet them or not, a couple of things I’ve noticed is strikeouts and the amount of hits allowed. He gave up seven hits and struck out six. If players can make contact, it’s not usually a good indicator in today’s game.

Here are some trends that may be indicators for tonight:

  • Nationals are 21-6 in last 27 games against teams with losing records (78% win)
  • Padres are 1-6 in Pedromo’s last seven starts against teams with winning records (14% win)

Pick: Washington Nationals -220 (Bet $50 to win $22.73)

I’ve said this over and over again – Scherzer is in the ‘Kershaw class’. Bet him until he shows over time that you’re wasting your money. It would suck to bet big and lose but I will be confident in him until he proves that my confidence is misplaced.