Winners: LIV vs. TSG

We bounced back Sunday night behind a strong performance from Max Scherzer and eventually a walk-off grand slam. We finished the week going 4-2, which on paper is a strong week. The most interesting thing about how we do the bets here, is that we bet with confidence and you can track the money. We don’t show hypothetical situations – we bet this amount to win this amount. It’s not ‘this is our pick record, bet the same amount every time’. Because that’s the case, we lost money last week. I’m confident we can get it back though.

Today, Liverpool plays TSG Hoffenheim in Germany for the first of two legs in a UEFA Champions League playoff. Liverpool is obviously the more talented team, but road games in other countries are clearly no joke. That’s what’s great about how the bet sets up today. There is tremendous value. Currently, the moneyline odds are +130 for Liverpool, +225 for Hoffenheim and +260 for a draw. I’ve watched a lot of Liverpool soccer since Jurgen Klopp has become manager. I’ve known him for a relative while know since he was the coach of a team I watch in the German Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund. All he knows is speed and attacking, and he’s brought that style to Liverpool over the last season. The only bad thing about so much attacking is that it leaves a team vulnerable to counterattacks and easy goals allowed. Nontheless, I think Liverpool will not lose this game. For that reason, I’m going to make a different play than normal. I’m going to bet both the Liverpool win and the draw. Because the odds are both +, you can still end up money as long as Hoffenheim doesn’t win. If they win, you’re in trouble.

Pick: Liverpool +130 (Bet $30 to win $39)

Pick: Draw +260 (Bet $30 to win $78)

People don’t usually root for ties but today is an exception. Also, for those of you who don’t know, in soccer, when playing over two legs, road goals are worth more than a home goal. For that reason, Liverpool would be happy with any result that isn’t a loss.