Winners: SF vs. WSH

*Originally posted on the Sports Action Blog

Well, since the last the last time you heard from me, we were once again devastated by a rare feat. Check it out below.

Favorites-betting has its perks – you win most of the time so there’s less stress. The problem is that when you bet more and lose, you feel it. Despite the bad luck, we will press on.

Tonight, as part two of a double-header, the San Francisco Giants play at the Washington Nationals. The Nationals, who beat the Giants yesterday, look to either win or sweep the series, depending on what happens in the first leg of the double-header. The Giants, who are one of baseball’s worst teams, have played better of late, going 6-4 in their last ten. San Francisco will send Matt Moore to the mound. Moore is 3-12 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. Moore’s numbers on the season are horrible but he’s pitched once against the Nationals this season and it was a solid performance. He lost but he went seven innings allowing two earned runs and six hits. It was one of his best performances of the season.

For the Nationals, Max Scherzer starts. Scherzer is 12-5 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. He’s in the ‘must-bet’ category for pitchers when they start. There are only a select few and he has been established as one of them for the last few years in my opinion. Like Moore, Scherzer has faced today’s opponent. In one start, he’s 1-0 allowing one earned run and five hits in a complete game performance. That obviously bolsters confidence. The fact that it was on the road is even more impressive.

Here are some trends that may show how this game will play out:

  • Giants are 13-25 as a road underdog
  • Nationals have won four of five when favored, including three in a row

The moneyline has moved significantly (+50) from just under 24 hours ago, meaning ‘sharps’ have found value. There’s a lot of data, but the most important piece of information is that Max Scherzer is starting so you shouldn’t expect him to give up a lot of runs. The Nationals can score, even without Bryce Harper who was placed on the 10-day disabled list.

Pick: Washington Nationals -250 (Bet $40 to win $16)

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