Winners: CIN vs. MIL

*Originally posted on the Sports Action Blog

We won easily Wednesday as the Nationals beat the Marlins 10-1. Gio Gonzalez dominated as predicted. Yesterday, if you followed my pick on Twitter, I told you the Mets would beat the Phillies. Called that one too. They also easily won 10-0 behind a strong performance from Jacob deGrom. For those of you keeping score at home, I’m 5-0 when only making one pick in the day. Lucky for you, I’m making one pick today.

Tonight, the Cincinnati Reds play at the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds are pretty hot right now, relative to them, going 6-4 over their last ten while the Brewers are still trying to battle for the NL Central title. Milwaukee is two games back and they’ve struggled recently, losing five games in a row. Cincinnati sends Homer Bailey to the mound. Bailey is 3-6 with an 8.86 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP. Obviously, those numbers are atrocious. Bailey has faced Milwaukee once this season and was even worse than his season numbers. He pitched three innings allowing six earned runs on six hits. I’m sure Brewers hitters are anxious to get at-bats today. Some guys are probably taking extra batting practice before the game tonight.

For the Brewers, Jimmy Nelson starts. Nelson is 9-5 on the season with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He’s been the model of consistency this season, allowing four or more runs in just six of his 23 starts this season. Nelson has faced the Reds twice this season, going 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 14 innings of work. The Reds are batting just .167 against him and he’s struck out twice as many batters as hits allowed, 16-8. He’s been an example of dominance – hopefully, it continues.

Here are some trends that may help predict the game:

  • Reds are 1-4 in Bailey’s last five starts against the Brewers
  • Reds are 0-4 in their last four games against a team with a winning record
  • Brewers are 5-0 in Nelson’s last five starts at home
  • Brewers are 5-0 in Nelson’s last five starts against a team with a losing record

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -200 (Bet $100 to win $50)

Everything is leaning towards the Brewers. Milwaukee is 7-3 against the Reds this season. This would fall under the category of ‘owning’ a team. The only thing that gives me pause is the Brewers’ home record as a favorite is just 19-11. But that’s baseball. Let’s roll the dice.

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