#MLBMondays: 3 Picks to Bet

*Originally posted on the Sports Action Blog

We’re fully rested and back from the weekend. If you followed my picks last week, you’d be up 118.3% on whatever you chose to bet. Safer bets, best bets. By the way, the last Nationals game that was a part of the three parlays was postponed Friday and replayed last night. They won 3-1. If that bet counted in with everything played last week, the return would have been even higher.

It’s the trade deadline today, so some teams have been weakened, while others are stronger. Let’s see if we can take advantage. We’ll still use $100 to split up our bets. There will be three straight bets and two parlays. We’ll put $25 on each straight bet, $15 on Parlay 1 and $10 on Parlay 2.

Check out today’s bets.

Game 1 is the Atlanta Braves at the Philadelphia Phillies. Starting for the Braves is Mike Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz is has been the de facto ace for the Braves going 9-5 on the season with a 3.82 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In two starts this season against the Phillies, he is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA in 14 innings, allowing just 8 hits. Foltynewicz also has 13 strikeouts in 14 innings. The Phillies start Nick Pivetta. Pivetta is 3-6 on the season with a 5.73 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP. He’s also 1-0 against today’s competition. However, in just five total innings, he’s allowed three earned runs and six hits. The Braves batted .300 against him. The Braves have lost four in a row and the Phillies have won four in a row. Again, however, the Braves 12-2 in Foltynewicz’s last 14 starts and 5-0 in his last five starts. I’ve obviously stated this in previous posts – do not bet on ‘your’ team. Sometimes you have a feeling. I was right last time betting against them. Today I’m picking them. Let’s see what happens today.

Pick 1: Atlanta Braves -120 (Bet $25 to win $20.83)

Game 2 is the Detroit Tigers at the New York Yankees. The trade depleted Tigers send Michael Fulmer to the mound. Fulmer is 10-8 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. In a small sample size, he’s been slightly worse in the second half of the season. Fulmer has allowed 9 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings giving him a 4.34 ERA. For the Yankees, another de facto ace goes in Luis Severino. Severino is 7-4 on the season with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He’s been fantastic since the All-Star break, going 2-0 in three starts allowing just one earned run in 21 innings! Severino is locked in right now. Here are some outside key trends to look at: The Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven games against right-handed starters while Detroit is 1-4 in their last five games on the road. We bet Severino last week and he came through. Let’s rely on him again today.

Pick 2: New York Yankees -220 (Bet $25 to win $11.36)

Game 3 is the Kansas City Royals at the Baltimore Orioles. Danny Duffy goes for the Royals. Duffy is 7-6 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. In one start against the Orioles this season, he’s 1-0, going seven innings, allowing just two runs. Ubaldo Jimenez starts for the Orioles. Jimenez is 4-7 with a 6.93 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. He’s really struggled after the All-Star break. Jimenez is 0-3 with an 8.40 ERA, allowing 14 runs in 15 innings. Yikes. Here are some trends that could help decide the game: The Royals are 8-0 in their last eight games against teams with losing records while the Orioles are 1-5 in Jimenez’s last six starts against teams with a winning record. I will preface my pick by saying, in general, when I go against Ubaldo, he wins. Hopefully, I’m finally right.

Pick 3: Kansas City Royals -110 (Bet $25 to win $22.83)

Here's the breakdown of how I want to play these picks in a parlay.

  • Parlay 1 (Bet $15 to win $25)
    • Atlanta Braves -120
    • New York Yankees -220

These are the two teams of the three I’ve picked that are most likely to win. This is your ‘breakeven’ parlay. You pair them in the parlay because you should get a good enough return to erase your loses and they are likely to both win.

  • Parlay 2 (Bet $10 to win $40.91)
    • Atlanta Braves -120
    • New York Yankees -220
    • Kansas City Royals -110

This is your ‘bankroll’ parlay. If you win every individual bet, you might as well get more money by betting them all together. Because you’re putting together so many picks, you’ll get better odds and can bet less money to win a ton.

For what it’s worth, I would have picked Oakland today to beat the San Francisco Giants. Sonny Gray is supposed to start but he may get traded and I didn’t want to get locked in to the pick if Oakland removed Gray from the start. I’m tracking all the bets on the Sports Action app. Hope for the best.

@NeverTakeLs | NeverTakeLs.com