Friday Four: Today’s Best Bets

*Originally posted on the Sports Action Blog

It’s almost the weekend and I’m back with more picks. For those of you keeping track, I’ve won 75% of my straight bets and 75% of my parlays – that’s a return on money of 96%. Hopefully, we can push over that 100% threshold heading into the end of Week 1. Let’s keep chopping wood.

We’ll continue to use $100 to bet with on the four picks today so here’s the breakdown. For the three of the four straight picks, we’ll bet $20. For the other, we’ll be $10. For Parlay 1, we’ll bet $15. For Parlay 2, we’ll bet $10. Finally, for Parlay 3, we’ll bet $5.

Now let’s talk about today’s picks.

Game 1 is the Colorado Rockies at the Washington Nationals. Starting for the Rockies is German Marquez. Marquez is 8-4 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He has one start this season against the Nationals and it didn’t go well. He allowed eight runs on nine hits in four innings of work. The Nationals batted .429 against him. For Washington, Tanner Roark starts. He’s 8-6 with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. More importantly, Roark is 1-0 against the Rockies this year. On the road at Coors Field, a park known for high-scoring games, he went five innings, allowing two earned runs and five hits. The Nationals are coming off a day game in which they hit eight homeruns so they’re in rhythm offensively right now. The Rockies struggle on the road, losing their last five games against teams with winning records. Hopefully, that trend continues.

Pick 1: Washington Nationals -140 (Bet $20 to win $14.29)

Game 2 is the Houston Astros at the Detroit Tigers. Making his return for the Astros is Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel is 9-0 in 11 starts this season with a 1.67 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. He hasn’t pitched since before the All-Star break but he went three scoreless innings in his rehab start. For the Tigers, Jordan Zimmermann gets the ball. Zimmermann is 6-8 with 5.81 ERAP and a 1.56 WHIP. Zimmermann had one of his better starts this season against the Astros even though he took the L. He went six innings allowing two earned runs, four total. That game was in May. He’s struggled in July, posting an ERA above 7.00. The Tigers are struggling in general, losing four of their last five games. But here’s a trend that may predict the future: The Tigers are 2-6 in Zimmermann’s last eight starts.

Pick 2: Houston Astros -150 (Bet $20 to win $13.33)

Game 3 is the Cleveland Indians at the Chicago White Sox. Cleveland is sending Danny Salazar to the mound. Salazar is 3-5 with a 4.79 ERA. He’s coming off his best start of the season, going seven innings allowing one hit and no runs against the Toronto Blue Jays at home. However, he’s 0-2 against the White Sox this season with a 4.91 ERA, allowing 11 hits in 11 innings. Derek Holland takes the mound for the White Sox. He’s 5-9 with a 5.12 ERA. His numbers aren’t great. I’ll hit you with the ‘however’ again. Holland is 2-0 this season against Cleveland, with a 0.75 ERA in 12 innings of work. Cleveland is batting .105 against him. Outside of these splits, every trend says Cleveland wins this game. However, I’m taking the White Sox based on the matchup and hoping for the best. “Scared money don’t make no money.”

Pick 3: Chicago White Sox +210 (Bet $10 to win $21)

Game 4 is the San Francisco Giants at the Los Angeles Dodgers. For the Giants, Matt Moorestarts. Moore is 3-10 on the season with a 5.82 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. Since the All-Star break he’s pitched his best baseball. That’s not saying much as his ERA is still above 4.00. In two starts against the Dodgers this season, he’s 0-1 with an 8.71 ERA allowing 10 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings. Yikes. On the other side, for the Dodgers, Alex Wood starts. Wood is 11-1 with a 2.17 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. Only one team has really hit Wood this year (pun intended), the Braves. The Giants are the only other team in which his ERA is above 3.00 against. He has two starts against them and his 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA, but they’re still only hitting .195 against him. Here is some trends that say Dodgers win (other than they are the best team in baseball): The Dodgers are 10-1 in their last 11 games following a day off and 9-1 in their last 10 against the NL West. I’m going with the Dodgers.

Pick 4: Los Angeles Dodgers -300 (Bet $20 to win $6.67)

Today, we’ve got three parlays to enjoy.

  • Parlay 1 (Bet $15 to win $19.20)
    • Washington Nationals -140
    • Los Angeles Dodgers -300

This is your ‘breakeven’ parlay for the day. These are the two teams, in my opinion, that are most likely to win. If these teams win, it will usually offset your losses. However, if they lose, you lose on every other parlay.

  • Parlay 2 (Bet $10 to win $28)
    • Washington Nationals -140
    • Los Angeles Dodgers -300
    • Houston Astros -150

Introducing the ‘get greedy’ parlay. This is your ‘breakeven’ parlay with another strong favorite you think will win, but aren’t 100% sold on. If they win, it’s basically a bonus telling you 'good job'.

  • Parlay 3 (Bet $5 to win $54)
    • Washington Nationals -140
    • Los Angeles Dodgers -300
    • Houston Astros -150
    • Chicago White Sox +210

This is your ‘bankroll’ parlay. Win this and you’re cashing out today. If the White Sox win today, everyone celebrate.

@nevertakels | nevertakels.com