Today’s 3 Best Bets

*Originally posted on the Sports Action Blog

After going 3-2 Monday on straight picks and 1-1 on parlays, we’re up just under 33%. Weighted betting is the best system. However, for today, we’ll switch it up a little because I’m confident in all the teams winning. Remember, the point of betting is to win – not constantly double your money. 

Like Monday, for this we’ll use $100 to split up our bets. There will be three straight bets and two parlays. We’ll put $25 on each straight bet, $20 on Parlay 1 and $5 on Parlay 2.

Let’s look at the picks.

Game 1 is the Cincinnati Reds at the New York Yankees. The Reds give the ball to Homer Bailey. Bailey is 2-4 on the season with an 8.56 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP. Those statistics are kind of deceiving because Bailey is either really bad or really good. In his three of his six starts this season he has allowed 2 runs or less. In the other three starts he has allowed no less than 6 runs, allowing 8 in two of those starts. On the other side, Luis Severino starts for the Yankees. He’s been the opposite of Bailey this season, being much more consistent. He’s 6-4 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. In contrast to Bailey, he’s allowed 6 runs just once this season in 19 starts this season. He’s allowed just one earned run in his last 20 innings pitched. He’s on a roll and the Reds are struggling. I’m taking the Yankees.

Pick 1: New York Yankees -250 (Bet $25 to win $10)

Game 2 is the Boston Red Sox at the Seattle Mariners. For the visitors, Chris Sale starts. Sale is looking like the American League Cy Young leader with a 12-4 record, a 2.48 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. He leads Major League Baseball in innings pitched, strikeouts and WHIP. He hasn’t allowed a run in three of his last four starts. He’s been dominating. For Mariners, Andrew Moore takes the mound. Moore is 1-2 with a 5.70 ERA. Moore has five starts this season. In those five starts he hasn’t allowed less than three earned runs in a game, allowing five in his last two starts. The Red Sox have lost the first two games of the series, so it’ll be up to Sale to stop the slide. I think he will.

Pick 2: Boston Red Sox -210 (Bet $25 to win $11.90)

Game 3 is the Atlanta Braves at the Arizona Diamondbacks. Let me preface this pick by saying the worst thing you can do in sports betting is betting for or against your team. You’ll more than likely end up angry. I’m from Atlanta. Aaron Blair starts for the Braves. It’s his first start of the season. Blair has been in Triple-A all season and has been average going 6-5 with a 4.86 ERA. He was terrible in the Majors last year going 2-7 with a 7.59 ERA. For the Diamondbacks, Patrick Corbin starts. He’s 7-9 on the season with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Patrick Corbin is not Chris Sale and the Braves are a good hitting team. However, Corbin is 3-0 in his career against the Braves with a 0.59 ERA in 30 2/3 innings, including a win over them on July 15. Here’s a trend that says the Braves have less of a chance of winning: They are 1-4 in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter.

Pick 3: Arizona Diamondbacks -190 (Bet $25 to win $13.16)

Now for the parlays.

  • Parlay 1 (Bet $20 to win $21.33)
    • New York Yankees -250
    • Boston Red Sox -210

These are the two teams most likely to win. This is today’s ‘breakeven’ bet that hopefully pans out.

  • Parlay 2 (Bet $5 to win $10.77)
    • New York Yankees -250
    • Boston Red Sox -210 
    • Arizona Diamondbacks -190

This is today’s ‘bankroll’ parlay. If every team wins, we cash out. I took the Diamondbacks out of the Parlay 1 because I can’t trust the Braves to cooperate.

Let’s see what happens.

@NeverTakeLs | NeverTakeLs.com