#MLBMondays: 5 Picks to Bet

*Originally posted on the Sports Action Blog

Baseball is the only team game where stats actually matter in betting. Baseball players do what their stats say they do and all of today's picks go by the numbers. The best thing about betting baseball is the moneylines are so low, relatively, that you can bet outright winners and almost make as much money as when you’re picking over/unders, spreads or anything else that is way riskier. Don’t get greedy. 

For the purpose of today’s bets, let’s assume we’re using $100 to bet everything. We’ll put $13 on each individual bet, $30 on Parlay 1 and $5 on Parlay 2.

Let’s get to the picks.

Game 1 is the Houston Astros at the Philadelphia Phillies. Brad Peacock starts for the Astros. He’s been excellent for the American League’s best team. Peacock is 8-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The Astros have won his last 5 starts and his ERA is 1.82 over that span. Solid. The Phillies start Vince Velasquez who only has one start in over a month, although he did win. His ERA at home is 6.26 and players are batting .287 against him there. I generally pick a winning pitcher against a losing pitcher, especially this late in the season. The Astros are baseball’s best road team. They should win this.

Pick 1: Houston Astros -145 (Bet $13 to win $8.97)

Game 2 is the Oakland Athletics at the Toronto Blue Jays. Chris Smith starts for Oakland. Smith only has two starts this season but his ERA is 2.77 and his WHIP is below 1.00. He’s off to a pretty good start. For the Blue Jays, Francisco Liriano gets the start. He’s 5-5 this season with a 6.15 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. In other words, he gets hit. Since the All-Star break, he’s been terrible. In two starts, he’s only last 3 2/3 innings giving up 7 earned runs, 9 hits and 5 walks. Players are batting .474 against him. Liriano pitches better at home, but not that much better. I’m taking Oakland.

Pick 2: Oakland Athletics +135 (Bet $13 to win $18.85)

Game 3 is the Colorado Rockies at the St. Louis Cardinals. Antonio Sentaleza takes the mound for the Rockies. He has been good for the Rockies this year with a solid WHIP of 1.25. His ERA is in the 4’s but that’s good enough for the Rockies who have one of the better offenses in baseball. Sentaleza has faced the Cardinals once this year going 8 innings, allowing 5 hits and no runs or walks. And that was at Coors Field, a park known for high-scoring games. Mike Leake goes for the Cardinals. Leake has a 3.39 ERA this season but he has struggled in his two starts since the All-Star break. He’s given up 6 runs in 7 innings and batters are batting .459 against him. That’s not great considering the Rockies are one of baseball’s best hitting teams. Here’s another quick stat that shows a trend: The Cardinals are 1-9 in Leake’s last 10 home starts against teams with a winning record. Everything points to a Colorado win.

Pick 3: Colorado Rockies +120 (Bet $13 to win $15.60)

Game 4 is the Minnesota Twins at the Los Angeles Dodgers. Bartolo Colon gets the ball for the Twins. He’s struggled this year, going 2-9 with an 8.19 ERA. He only has three starts this season when he has given up 3 runs or fewer. His last such start was May 20 and he only went 4 1/3 innings. Hyun-Jin Ryu goes for the Dodgers. He’s making his first start since June after recovering from a foot injury. Ryu has was solid in his 8 starts before going to the disabled list only allowing more than two runs twice during that span. I’ve personally witnessed Colon’s struggles during his time with the Braves this season. Colon has even said he may retire if he has issues during this game against the Dodgers. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. He will more than likely be retiring after this start.

Pick 4: Los Angeles Dodgers -235 (Bet $13 to win $5.53)

Game 5 is the New York Mets at the San Diego Padres. For the visitors, Jacob deGrom takes the mound. deGrom is having an excellent season and has been the best pitcher for the Mets. He’s 11-3 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He’s been better after the All-Star break than before. He’s 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA. Players are batting just .204 against him and he has 14 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings. Kershaw-esque. Clayton Richard is pitching for the Padres. He’s 5-10 with a 5.35 ERA. He struggled before and now he’s struggling after the All-Star break. He’s 0-2 after the break, giving up 15 runs in 9 1/3 innings. Players are hitting .510 against him since then! As if you needed any more to make a decision, here’s more quick stats that shows a trend: The Mets are 7-0 in deGrom’s last 7 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts against teams with a losing record and 4-0 in his last 4 starts against a left-handed starter.

Pick 5: New York Mets -170 (Bet $13 to win $7.65)

I like to play parlays so here are a couple you should play. 

  • Parlay 1 (Bet $30 to win $37.92)
    •     Los Angeles Dodgers -235
    •     New York Mets -170

These are the two teams of the five I’ve picked that are most likely to win. This is your ‘breakeven’ parlay. You pair them in the parlay because you should get a good enough return to erase your loses and they are likely to both win.

  • Parlay 2 (Bet $5 to win $93.89)
    •     Houston Astros -145
    •     Oakland Athletics +135
    •     Colorado Rockies +120
    •     Los Angeles Dodgers -235
    •     New York Mets -170

This is your ‘bankroll’ parlay. If you win every individual bet, you might as well get more money by betting them all together. Because you’re putting together so many picks, you’ll get better odds and can bet less money to win a ton.

I’m tracking all the bets on the Sports Action app. Let’s see what happens. 

@NeverTakeLs | NeverTakeLs.com