Winners: ITA vs. ALB

Winners: ITA vs. ALB

Another win yesterday. We’re now 32-2 in our last 34 picks. We’re rolling.

Now to today’s game.

Today, Italy visits Albania in their final group game of UEFA World Cup Qualifying. Italy is looking to regain its form as it moves toward a playoff for a birth in next year’s Cup after tying Macedonia at home a couple of days ago and blowing a chance to catch Spain for the automatic qualifying spot. Albania looks to win against one of the top two teams in the group for the first time. Italy and Albania have played twice all-time, both since 2014. Italy has won both games, 1-0 and 2-0. The 2-0 game was in March of this year. Here’s how we’ll bet today’s game.

  • Pick 1: Italy -210 (Bet $80 to win $38.40)
  • Pick 2: Draw +300 (Bet $30 to win $90)

I’m assuming Vegas has such high value for Italy because it doesn’t think Italy is going to be motivated to play because it’s locked up a playoff spot and no one can catch them. Italy plays low-scoring games and I’ve noticed whenever it plays a “low-level” team, Vegas sets its Italy goal difference at 2.5 and Italy never covers. Vegas apparently doesn’t get how Italy plays. Italy is not like Spain where it just keeps attacking. Italy is fine winning 1-0 and playing defense. I think that’s what it does today.

Fingers crossed.